![]() It's more about the fact that, you know, in the years ahead, through ups and downs, that we're looking at structurally higher energy prices, most likely.Įrik: Lyn, another topic that you've written quite a bit about is inflation. So I'm not trying to say, you know, chart oil on a week by week basis and make those specific calls. And my view is that it won't be a straight line. And we're starting to see that manifest this year. And so my contention for a while now has been that we're entering, you know, a decade of much tighter commodity supply in general and energy supplies specifically. They start the whole cycle again, and this is a pretty long term cycle. And some of those take many years, you know, for the bigger projects to bring online, until eventually they over build, you know, cause a period of oversupply and low prices again. And so then you start to get rising prices and then more and more supply comes online. But then over time, if that not occurring, eventually you work down the existing supply, right? So wells start to run dry, demand starts to slowly creep up over time, until you go back above equilibrium. But for a variety of reasons, nobody wants to invest in the space. There even you know, in more recent terms, there could be other reasons why they don't invest like an ESG overlay onto those financial reasons. There's periods of time where you know, commodities are structurally over supplied, prices are low, nobody wants to invest. ![]() And so, generally speaking, commodities go through these very large CapEx cycles. And that this is obviously going to cause significant inflationary pressures both for the energy sector directly and then also for the broader economy. And so you know, my view of the energy market over the past year or more has been that supply side issues are starting to come to the forefront. And so energy is obviously one of the key things affecting all markets, not just obviously energy markets, but also impacting everything else, because energy touches pretty much everything in our lives, financially, and otherwise. Lyn: Thanks for having me and happy to be here. And we'll get into some of those other views a little bit later on. I don't want to taint it too much with my own views. What's on your mind with respect to energy. Lyn, it's great to get you back on the show, I know you've been writing quite a bit about a subject that's very much near and dear to my heart, which is crude oil and energy in general. If you don't have a research roundup email, just go to our homepage and click the button that says looking for the downloads. Once you've got it though, I think you're gonna love the graphs and charts that it contains. Apologies if it may be delayed a couple of hours after the podcast this week due to some production issues. Listeners who find the download link in your research roundup email. I strongly encourage you to download it as we will be referring to the charts and graphs that it contains throughout this interview. ![]() Lyn produced a terrific slide deck to accompany today's interview. Erik: Joining me now is Lyn Alden, founder of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy.
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